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At first, Donald Trump appeared to take a strong approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing threats of "severe repercussions" in August should Vladimir Putin carried on obstructing truce discussions, Trump eventually imposed substantial penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in danger. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate past, Trump continues to view the war as a basic border issue, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will please the president. Yet, Putin's war is not only about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an attractive example for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

Although maintaining in position the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a step that would facilitate future fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would require the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their current large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no condition that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we believe this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "decisive unified military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Response

An additional side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not